DEATH BY PUNDIT TIMELINE: how conventional wisdom and inside the beltway thinking has cut any intellectual link between the Republican Party apparatus and the conservative base....or....why the RNC always forms circular firing squads: see this timeline of how following blindly the conventional wisdom of pundits and pollsters has led the party down a path of pending destruction:
1988: GHW Bush (Bush 41) runs as heir to Reagan mantle and wipes out extremely liberal Michael Dukakis...and his ACLU membership card in tow.
1991: Bush 41 and Norman Schwarzkopf bring down Iraq...but stop short of completing job "to please the United Nations and world community." At this point, Bush approval ratings near 90 per cent.
1991: "Read my lips...no new taxes."
1991 later: New taxes.
1992: Moderate Bush Quayle Campaign is directionless. Approval ratings of 90 disintegrate to 38% of popular vote. (we'll call that an UNpopular vote). Moderate message does not expose hoax of Perot movement and allows charismatic Clinton to hide his liberalism.
1994: Newt Gingrich lead ultra conservative Contract With America leads to sea change in congress and historic GOP take over of congress.
1995: Newt starts to get along with the Clintons, because, well, a focus group told him to...and the 94 momentum is all but gone. This "getting along" did not keep GOP from catching the fall out of the government shut down....which is what is was supposed to do.
1996: Dole-Kemp ticket...because its "his turn." And, in the name of bi-partisanship, Jack Kemp forgets supply side tax policy and thanks Al Gore in a nationally televised debate for realizing that Kemp is actually a nicer guy than the rest of us Republicans. Way to go Jack. Yeah...we have your back.
1998: Lewinsky guilt...felt by GOP congressional members instead of Clinton or Lewinsky...leads to a moderate message and mid term disaster election. (only Jesse Ventura ran as conservative that year...but he was too brain damaged to know it and governed as a moderate disaster.)
2000: After the Florida aftermath..the "New Tone" started with not challenging the assertion that Gore "won the popular vote" and therefore Bush was an "illegitimate President." This was not only a horrible strategy that still hurts us today...it might not have been true. The now entrenched figure of 500 thousand could have easily been deconstructed by mentioning that some 100 thousand panhandle voters in Florida left polling places after the networks declared for Gore...that many times that left polling places out west for the same reason...and then there's the issue of the convict vote (mostly Gore, of course) should not have been counted. THIS WAS HUGE miscalculation and you cannot go through any 24 hour news cycle today without hearing "Gore won the popular vote in 2000."
And you don't hear any other commentator saying this...do you?
2000-2004: New Tone strategy from Bush and Karl Rove. This childish need to be loved results in quickly losing momentum from post 9-11 era...much like Bush 41 went moderate and lost all Gulf War I momentum.
The new tone also "apologizes" to liberals for us...the conservative voter...by sending the message that Bush 43 is "above" the petty feelings...known as principals...that "we" stand for. This does not work, is arrogant, and is why his approval ratings are 30%.
2004: Instead of a Reagan landslide ala 1984, Bush squeaks in with some nice last minute micro managing of certain areas of Ohio by Rove and his direct mail talents. Like all direct mail geniuses...Rove knows his retail craft. For this he was given title of genius. Never mind that like all direct mail guru's...he has no clue about the big picture...this election should have been a 40 state wipe out. It was the New Tone strategy that had a somewhat dispirited base, a confused electorate, and a close election with perhaps the weakest Dem ticket since McGovern.
2004-2006: more moderate lack of direction, sinking poll numbers in spite of great economy...and mid term disaster in 06 elections. Sure, Foley-gate was a major issue...but a strong directed party would have been able to fight off Foley gate easily by way of Barney Frank, ad nauseum.
2008: We nominate McCain.
That about sums it up.